Western Washington housing market “energized” and showing signs of “definite turnaround”
KIRKLAND, Wash. (May 3, 2012) – Northwest Multiple Listing Service brokers reported double-digit gains in both pending and closed sales during April compared to a year ago, but the most eye-catching number may pertain to prices. For the first time in more than four years (since January 2008) the year-over-year change in selling prices was positive.
The price gain was a modest 1.27 percent for last month’s sales of single family homes and condominiums that closed in the 21 counties served by Northwest MLS. For single family homes (excluding condominiums) the price gain compared to 12 months ago was 2.9 percent. Condo prices fell 7.9 percent.
The median price for last month’s closed sales area-wide was $240,000 for single family homes and condominiums combined. That compares to $237,000 for year-ago sales. The figure for April also outgained the median price for completed transactions during the months of March ($225,000) and February ($218,944).
Prices for single family homes continued climbing. The median price for last month’s closed sales was $250,000, up from both a year ago ($242,950) and from March ($234,487).
While cheered by the figure that snapped a 50-month string of negative numbers for year-over-year price comparisons, Northwest MLS brokers said consumers must be realistic in their expectations. They also noted the market recovery will be slow and incremental.
“We’ve seen appreciation three months in a row, signaling a definitive turnaround in the market,” remarked OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “Due to the shortcomings in the Case-Shiller index I think it will take them until November to report year-over-year appreciation,” he added. (The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices track changes in the value of residential real estate both nationally as well as in 20 metropolitan regions.)
“As is fairly typical of a recovering market, the activity first heats up in the urban centers, and then spreads to the surrounding suburbs and outlining areas. We are now seeing this trend,” noted Jacobi, who is also a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors.
Tight inventory is creating sellers’ markets in some areas, according to reports from MLS directors. Inventory is down more than 27 percent for the Northwest MLS market overall, and by even larger margins in three counties: Snohomish (down 46.2 percent), King (down 39.4 percent), and Pierce (down 28.6 percent). Brokers say as demand outstrips supply, competition may intensify, especially for homes that are well-priced and in good condition in desirable locations.
Brokers added 9,166 new listings to inventory last month, which was 917 fewer listings than the same month a year ago. At month end, the selection totaled 25,291 active listings, a drop of 27.5 percent from a year ago according to the latest figures from Northwest MLS.
MLS members reported 8,790 pending sales across all 21 counties during April for a 22.9 percent increase from a year ago when there were 7,154 mutually accepted offers.
Talk of a seller’s market has to be tempered, Wilson emphasized, because “when sellers hear these words in the news they instantly think their homes are worth a lot more money….and they are not. Even if our home prices appreciated 2-to-3 percent a year – which they aren’t currently -- it will take many years for homes to return to the values that we saw a few years ago,” he suggested.
Despite his cautionary words, Wilson was upbeat. “We continue to see an increase in activity across the board. More people at open houses, more listings coming on the market, more buyers making offers and more multiple offer situations on correctly priced and staged homes.”
Inventory is considered by many industry observers to be a key indicator affecting the housing market. In a recent Bankrate.com interview about the market’s recovery, Stuart Gabriel, director of UCLA's Ziman Center for Real Estate in Los Angeles, suggested zeroing in on inventory, which he called “the most important statistic.”
“Consumers are bothered by the lack of inventory and are ready to make sure that they do not miss out on what may be the leveling off of the declining market values,” Stenvers stated. Buyers who were expecting to have offers accepted that are well below market value “are beginning to express frustrations” that this is no longer occurring, he added. “As prices stabilize and inventories drop many buyers will feel the chance at home ownership at bargain prices slipping from their grip,” the MLS director observed.
Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership includes more than 22,000 real estate brokers. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 21 counties in Washington state.